Subsurface Capital Forecaster

AI-assisted price forecasting and capital prioritization for subsurface exploration and development opportunities, combining technical and commercial signals to guide energy investment decisions.

The Problem

Prioritize subsurface exploration and development capital with AI-driven decision intelligence

Organizations face these key challenges:

1

Subsurface and commercial data are stored in disconnected systems

2

Opportunity ranking relies heavily on expert judgment and manual spreadsheets

3

Uncertainty is handled inconsistently across teams and assets

4

Portfolio reviews are too slow to react to market changes

Impact When Solved

Increase expected portfolio NPV through better opportunity rankingReduce cycle time for investment screening and portfolio refreshImprove consistency of capital allocation decisions across assetsQuantify uncertainty and downside risk for each subsurface opportunity

The Shift

Before AI~85% Manual

Human Does

  • Collect subsurface, cost, and market inputs from disconnected sources
  • Review prospects through expert interpretation and spreadsheet-based economics
  • Debate rankings and capital priorities in portfolio review meetings
  • Select funding actions and stage-gate decisions based on deterministic scenarios

Automation

  • No meaningful AI support in the legacy workflow
  • Provide limited spreadsheet calculations for scenario comparisons
  • Generate static charts and committee presentation outputs
With AI~75% Automated

Human Does

  • Set portfolio objectives, risk tolerance, and capital allocation constraints
  • Review AI-ranked opportunities and approve funding or deferral decisions
  • Investigate exceptions, low-confidence forecasts, and strategic overrides

AI Handles

  • Unify technical and commercial signals into standardized opportunity assessments
  • Forecast probabilistic value, success likelihood, and downside risk for each opportunity
  • Continuously re-rank opportunities as subsurface, cost, or price assumptions change
  • Generate scenario comparisons, investment summaries, and capital prioritization recommendations

Operating Intelligence

How Subsurface Capital Forecaster runs once it is live

AI runs the first three steps autonomously.

Humans own every decision.

The system gets smarter each cycle.

Confidence97%
ArchetypeRecommend & Decide
Shape6-step converge
Human gates1
Autonomy
67%AI controls 4 of 6 steps

Who is in control at each step

Each column marks the operating owner for that step. AI-led actions sit above the divider, human decisions and feedback loops sit below it.

Loop shapeconverge

Step 1

Assemble Context

Step 2

Analyze

Step 3

Recommend

Step 4

Human Decision

Step 5

Execute

Step 6

Feedback

AI lead

Autonomous execution

1AI
2AI
3AI
5AI
gate

Human lead

Approval, override, feedback

4Human
6 Loop
AI-led step
Human-controlled step
Feedback loop
TL;DR

AI handles assembly, analysis, and execution. The human gate sits at the decision point. Every cycle refines future recommendations.

The Loop

6 steps

1 operating angles mapped

Operational Depth

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